“God doesn’t walk around Las Vegas thinking he is Frank Sinatra.”

What arrogance Tom Tancredo must have suggesting that Dan Maes drop out of the Colorado gubernatorial race because he doesn’t have the numbers to beat Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.  Of course he can’t win.  Neither can Tom Tancredo nor any other Republican or third party candidate.  I don’t suspect we will see Republican leadership in Colorado for sometime.  Our history has been dominated by Democrats and probably will with the migration of population from more liberal regions.  Only a real scandal in the Democratic party will change that in the foreseeable future.

I think Dan Maes deserves credit to run for an office he has no resume to support and only a couple of nickels to rub together to make his case.  Isn’t that about as grassroots as you can get?

Hickenlooper will be a disaster.  Good guy.  I would love to grab a couple of beers with him.  But he also has a thin resume in dealing with the diversity of Colorado.  I still think we made a mistake in the Republican party to effectively dismiss Marc Holtzman in the last election.  He was an outsider but, over dinner with him, he demonstrated a realistic understanding of the issues facing state finance.  While I think Bill Ritter is also a good guy, he didn’t have the stomach to call a “spade a spade”.  Neither will Hickenlooper.

Four years from now we will discuss the same issues but with a deeper ditch.  And a Democrat is likely to win again.

BA

I started talking to another gentlemen, Paul, who was also there and found that both of us had been longtime Moscow residents.  We even knew some of the same people.  While we were talking, a distraught young man we had seen going back and forth from the helpdesk to the cashier’s window sat down beside us.  He explained his story that he had lost his wallet and passport the night before and was trying to get his passport replaced so he could fly-out the next morning.  His only credit card he had remaining was not working at the Embassy cashier’s window and he didn’t have any money to pay the $100 fee to have a new passport issued.  There was nothing the Embassy employees could do for him and it was the middle of the night in the US.  He would not be able to get help from his office until late in the afternoon.  He said, “I guess I’m asking you for help.”

Given the setup (and slight hassle) of getting things done at the Embassy, Paul and I glanced at each other and concluded that this was unlikely a scam, but more a young man who had been too carefree in a big city a long way from home.  Both of us reached for our wallets, with me handing him $100 with my business card and said, “just send me a check when you get home.”  Paul also passed him some money for incidentals, taxis and whatever else he may need.  He also passed him his business card and said to call if he needed any other assistance and he would try to help.  He was overwhelmingly grateful (and humbled).  He said to us, “I will pass this forward.”

Now I’m no good samaritan but it seemed so natural to help someone out that I never thought too long about it.  Paul was the same.  I was therefore surprised when two different Embassy employees thanked us for helping him out and that they had never seen someone offer help in a similar situation.

I hope I wasn’t scammed.  You never know.  But it sure felt good to lend a helping hand.

BA

Despite expectations that it will take up to a year to receive the necessary approvals, will it actually close?  I have my doubts.

Qwest has been rumored as a merger partner for years.  Its principal territory in a 14-state western region offers a lot of geography, but relatively few people.  With a fixed-line business and the migration of residential customers to wireless (which Qwest basically doesn’t have), this is not a recipe for success.  In fact, it’s a crappy story.

CenturyTel is offering Qwest shareholders the promise of better dividends in the future in an “all share” offer.  Yes, all share!  Certainly not a Warren Buffett deal.  Mr. Buffett almost always believes his company’s shares are fairly valued – at worst.  He cringed when he had to issue shares to finance a portion of the BNSF transaction earlier this year.  Maybe the executives think the current value of CenturyTel (CTL) is as good as it is going to get.  It is trading close to its 52-week high.  And maybe Qwest executives have tired from their Sisyphean task to do something meaningful with the company.

CenturyTel expects to be able to drive $575 million of annual costs out of the combined business highlighting reductions in corporate overhead, network and operational efficiencies, IT support, increased purchasing power, and advertising/marketing.  Qwest’s announcement earlier this year that it would not renew the lease on its corporate headquarters next year probably contributes more than $10 million to this savings.  Hmmm, together that sounds like job reductions in addition to many remaining jobs leaving Colorado.  That probably won’t be popular among unions and politicians.

At the end of the day, Qwest needs to do something.  It is a dinosaur that has not kept up with the times.  Maybe blame this on the late 90s and Joe Nacchio, where acquisitions and debt put them behind the 8-ball.  But we shouldn’t underestimate the resistance from regulators to approve another horizontal merger, and the desires of western state communities that still enjoy a sense of autonomy.

That said, maybe by 2012 a new Supreme Court will use the 30th anniversary of the Modification of Final Judgment to overturn the breakup of AT&T and begin to rebuild ol’ Ma Bell.

BA